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With pressure mounting to avert a government shutdown, heightened by culture war demands from House conservatives burned by previous brawls, the House speaker faces a difficult decision – risk a shutdown or risk the gavel.

That was 2015. But 2023 is treading a similar course.

For former House Speaker John Boehner, it was the final chapter in a lengthy standoff with House conservatives that contributed to his resignation from Congress after 25 years and almost five in the top job. For current House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, just seven months into his tenure, the outcome remains an open question.

With a looming deadline to fund the government and much left to be accomplished upon Congress’ return from recess, McCarthy and other congressional leaders expressed willingness earlier this month to pass a stop-gap measure to keep the government funded, buying lawmakers more time to work out the 12 appropriations bills they’ve been pursuing. But demands from the House Freedom Caucus have complicated the effort and put McCarthy in yet another bind from the right that analysts say could be the one to put his leadership position on the line.

“This is now the most important fight he faces as speaker and the choice between kind of the campaigning arm, the House Freedom Caucus arm, and the actual governing arm of keeping a government running,” says Casey Burgat, the director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.

McCarthy has walked a fine line with the conservatives since the speaker battle, when they took him 15 grueling rounds before granting him his win, and in turn gained the power to bring up a vote for his ouster, lowering the threshold to just a single lawmaker.

So when the House Freedom Caucus announced it would oppose a stop-gap measure to keep the government funded unless certain conservative provisions are includes – like addressing DOJ "weaponization" and ending "woke" Pentagon policies – it prompted a confrontation with McCarthy that’s been brewing and bubbling in fits and starts for months, ready to boil over.

Such legislation would lose support among House Democrats and face steep odds in the Democrat-controlled Senate, making a shutdown likely. But without the support of conservatives on a clean continuing resolution and only a few votes to spare in the GOP narrow majority, McCarthy will likely need to rely on Democrats to approve a stop-gap measure – a move sure to provoke the hard-liners in his caucus.

“This is where his choice comes in,” Burgat says. “If he takes Democratic support, which likely he'll need to do, then that opens himself up to at least a motion to vacate because it only takes one now.”

The contours of the standoff were previewed during the debate over the debt ceiling, as House conservatives demanded controversial spending cuts and policies that put McCarthy in a difficult negotiating position with Democrats and the White House. Ultimately, Democratic votes on the debt ceiling agreement outnumbered Republicans in the House in a turn of events that infuriated some members of the House Freedom Caucus.

That same small but vocal minority – numbering in the mid-30s out of 222 Republicans in the chamber, though the caucus doesn’t publicize the exact number – made their frustration known just days later, when they blocked a routine vote, sending the chamber into a week-long gridlock. At the chamber’s reunification, McCarthy told reporters they had agreed to “sit down and talk more” in future spending negotiations. And shortly after, Republican appropriators agreed to mark up the 12 spending bills well below the levels agreed to in the debt ceiling deal in what appeared to be a major concession made to the House Freedom Caucus that has colored the funding process so far.

But this time, emboldened by the shortcomings in the last fiscal battle, they may come out with a greater show of force, as McCarthy faces what political science professor Rob Mellen Jr. calls a “no win situation.”

“I think this might be the fight they're willing to go to the mat for,” says Mellen, of the University of South Florida. “That this time if he really doesn't feel like he's going to compromise with them and give them what they want, that they may be willing to just say, ‘Hey, we'll shut this down. We'll go that direction, and we'll remove you if you go to the Democrats.’”

Members of the Freedom Caucus have for months suggested that they would be willing to let the government shut down if they don’t agree with the funding package. Indeed, for the conservatives, who largely hail from safe districts, there isn’t much to lose, as analysts note that if the government shuts down and Republicans are blamed, the conservatives won’t be on the chopping block like their colleagues in swing districts.

But some have noted that for the Freedom Caucus, perhaps armed with the understanding that their demands have little chance of becoming reality, the ultimate goal may be McCarthy’s removal after all.

“It just puts McCarthy in this bind and sort of forces his hand almost to do what he did before, which is get the government funded with Democratic votes, and in so doing, they can respond by triggering a call for his removal,” says David C. Barker, professor of government and director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. “And I think that's what they're agitating toward. That's what they want. That's kind of what they wanted from the beginning. And they've been looking for a mechanism to do it. And I think maybe all along they've planned on this being the one.”

True to form, Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas didn’t mince words about McCarthy’s dilemma with the Freedom Caucus last week, calling a motion to oust McCarthy “inevitable” if he continues to rely on Democrats.

“McCarthy’s going to have to listen to the people on the right or else he’s going to have to rely on the Democrats to pass this,” Jackson said on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. “But I’m telling you if that happens, I mean, it’s going to be detrimental to leadership in the House if they blow off the concerns of the people like myself and Freedom Caucus and some of the other people on the right that are making reasonable demands in this process – it’s going to be a problem.”

Whether McCarthy can rely on Democrats to back a CR is one thing. But whether they’ll protect his gavel is another matter altogether.

Some dynamics suggest at least some Democrats would come to his aid, like reports of a coalition of Democrats offering McCarthy a deal during the debt ceiling fight that they would help him keep his job should he responsibly raise the debt ceiling. Another calculation for Democrats is McCarthy’s possible replacement, who likely wouldn’t align more closely with their positions, making McCarthy’s retention arguably in Democrats' best interest.

But even if McCarthy survives a motion for his ouster with the help of Democrats or calls conservatives’ bluff and his speakership isn’t ultimately threatened, analysts say his hold on the conference will remain shaky and his ability to get things done stunted.

“He can only afford to lose four. And if there's 40 that are just mad at him all the time, then they're going to be reluctant to support him even if it's on things that they want to,” Burgat says. “They've proven willing to shut down the chamber even when it's run by their own party. And so, as much as he'll defang them on this one vote, he'll need them again for any Republican priorities to be passed out of the House heading into an election year.”

It’s a dynamic that haunted Boehner for years and ultimately contributed to his early departure. And the House Freedom Caucus has only grown bigger and more brash, releasing statements and listing demands publicly, while McCarthy’s margin is just a fraction of what the former speaker’s was in 2015.

“McCarthy is closer to being one of them than Boehner ever was,” Barker says. “Boehner really was more of a traditional Chamber of Commerce-type of Republican whereas McCarthy stylistically and policy-wise for some time now has been a MAGA-friendly flame thrower right in line with them. He certainly was during the Trump years. And so, you know, it just shows their willingness to eat their own.”

Unlike McCarthy, Boehner was already on his way out, planning to resign months later, when he made the decision to step down. Even then, he noted that had he not been planning to leave, he wouldn’t have done so when talk of a motion to vacate began swirling.

“It was never about the vote. There was never any doubt about whether I could survive a vote, but I don’t want my members to have to go through this, and I certainly don’t want the institution to go through this, especially when I knew I was thinking about walking out the door anyway,” he told reporters at the time.

When asked what advice he would give to McCarthy, then his presumed successor, he urged the California Republican to protect the institution. And when questioned by another reporter about whether the next speaker would ultimately face the same fate, he earnestly replied.

。据外媒报道，1月15日，亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯离婚，小说家麦肯齐·贝索斯被公之于众。在与杰夫·贝佐斯结婚25年期间，麦肯锡一直是亚马逊电子商务的忠实大使。

B | 正是亚马逊使她和她丈夫成为了世界上最富有的夫妇。麦肯齐·贝索斯是亚马逊出生传说中不可或缺的一部分。时间可以追溯到1994年。麦肯齐开车去西雅图，是她丈夫贝索斯坐在副驾驶座上。当时，他们共同制定了创业公司的商业计划。亚马逊的第一位会计师麦肯齐（McKenzie）参与了亚马逊从一家小型网上书店到如今的电子商务巨头的成长，现在亚马逊已经成为美国历史上第二家价值超过1万亿美元的公司。图片：贝佐斯夫妇是一位48岁的小说家，参加了由《名利场》主办的2018年奥斯卡晚会。但25年来，亚马逊几乎完全定义了她的公众形象。最近关于她和丈夫即将离婚的消息可能很快会改变这一点。贝佐斯的twitter账号首次出现在杰夫和麦肯齐签署的一份声明中，他在声明中写道：“经过一次充满爱的探索和暂时的分离，我们决定离婚，继续以朋友的身份生活在一起。”这对夫妇带着四个孩子写道，“作为父母、朋友、商业和项目合作伙伴，以及面临风险和他们愿意冒险，他们看到了光明的未来。“在过去的几十年里，随着亚马逊的发展，贝索斯夫妇已经联合起来参加了许多备受瞩目的活动，包括由名利场赞助的奥斯卡派对和金球奖。2012年，麦金齐主持了由亚马逊赞助的纽约大都会艺术博物馆慈善舞会。

C | 但在大多数情况下，麦肯锡一直致力于保护他的隐私。与媒体关注的焦点相比，她更喜欢关注写作和孩子。麦肯锡很少引起公众的注意，既不宣传他的书，也不维护他丈夫公司的声誉。

D | 2013年，她发表了一篇关于亚马逊的严肃的一星评论，批评了亚马逊写的布拉德斯通的《一切商店》，称之为“充满事实错误”和“充满扩展非小说书籍界限的技能”。斯通是一位经验丰富的科学记者。为《纽约时报》撰写书评的尖田美彦（Michiko Kakutani）说，斯通讲述了“一个颠覆性创新的故事，充满权威和激情，以及许多知识渊博的故事。”尽管麦肯锡可能会获得迄今为止最大的离婚协议，但对低调的女性知之甚少。麦肯锡·塔特尔在见到丈夫之前是个雄心勃勃的小说家。她会见了纽约对冲基金D.E.Shaw的计算机科学家Bezos，他已经是该公司的高级副总裁。麦肯齐告诉《时尚》杂志说，她在公司做行政助理，在写小说的时候补贴家人。但很快麦肯锡发现自己被隔壁办公室里那个人的笑声迷住了。麦肯齐在2013年接受查理·罗斯的采访时说，“起初我对他的声音很着迷。”在他们约会后不到三个月，这对夫妇订婚了；不久之后，他们在佛罗里达州西棕榈滩的一个度假胜地结婚。贝佐斯30岁，麦肯齐23岁。1999年，也就是他结婚六年后，贝佐斯告诉《连线》杂志，他曾希望见到一个“足智多谋”的伴侣。

E | 与丈夫相比，麦肯锡经常把自己描述成一个书呆子般的内向者。这种吸引力似乎是相互的。在2017年的一次峰会上，贝佐斯说，他的妻子有句名言：“我宁愿生个九指小孩，也不愿意生个傻子。”麦肯齐的文学抱负由来已久。

F | 根据作者在亚马逊上的采访和传记（她害羞地在亚马逊上写道她“和丈夫和四个孩子住在西雅图”），她在六岁时开始认真写作，那时她完成了一本142页的书《蠕虫》。后来，手稿被洪水冲毁，这导致麦肯锡现在仔细地备份了他写的每一个字。

G | 在普林斯顿大学学习期间，麦肯锡在诺贝尔奖获得者和小说家托尼·莫里森的指导下学习了创造性写作。莫里森聘请她为1992年小说《爵士乐》的研究助理，并将她介绍给阿曼达·乌尔本，阿曼达·乌尔本是她的高级文学经纪人。

H | 在《时尚》杂志上，莫里森称赞麦肯锡是一个罕见的天才，称她为“我在创意写作课上遇到的最好的学生之一”。

I | 2005年，麦肯锡的首部小说《路德·奥尔布赖特的考验》受到了莫里森的热烈赞扬，莫里森称之为“一部罕见的作品：一部令人心碎、情感成熟的小说”。1992年，贝索斯从普林斯顿大学毕业6年后，麦肯锡从同一所大学毕业。她接受了行政助理的工作，这使她能够接触到未来的电子商务巨头。贝佐斯夫妇于1993年结婚，1994年搬到西雅图，当时亚马逊成立。亚马逊成立后不久，麦肯锡的身份就融入了她丈夫的公司。她想在出版业留下自己的印记，而她的丈夫则拼命地想颠覆它。从一开始，亚马逊大使就知道贝索斯想利用互联网颠覆传统的零售业。他很快把亚马逊打造成一家成功的网上书店，并开始多元化销售音乐唱片、视频、药品和其他消费品。在1999年接受《连线》采访时，他告诉了奇普拜耳关于他的愿景。贝佐斯预测，到2020年，“你现在购买的大量商店，如主食、纸制品、清洁用品，将以电子方式订购。一些实体店可以生存下来，但它们必须能够提供娱乐价值或即时便利。当亚马逊成立时，麦肯齐和她的丈夫住在东亚特兰大和西亚特兰大郊区的一所租房子里。据“一网打尽”，除了担任公司会计外，她还帮助公司名称，甚至在前期通过UPS订购物品。